NCAAT- Creighton vs Princeton 3/24/23

[MUPanther]

South Region- Louisville, Ky.
6 Creighton vs 15 Princeton, 9:00pm
Line: Creighton -10/140

TBS- Ian Eagle, Jim Spanarkel & Evan Washburn

[Omaha1]

75% of the early handle is going to Princeton. Wonder if the line will move much. I’m thinking about hedging my fandom with a ML wager on Princeton too.

[ArmyVet]

From The Athletic:

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton
Upset chance: 19.4% (most likely)

Princeton is just the fourth 15-seed to make it this far — and, for three key reasons, its odds of winning have increased a bit each step along the way. First, the Tigers have played so well recently that they’ve dragged our model’s estimate of their basic strength upward. This isn’t because we are overweighting their past few games or conference tournament or anything like that. Simply appending their wins against top Ivy League rivals, Arizona and Missouri to their season, without any special weighting, makes their whole record look better — in a way that one victory over Purdue did not for FDU.

On Feb. 22, our model rated Creighton as 21.4 points per 100 possessions better than Princeton, after adjusting for schedule strength. That gap is down to less than 15 points now. It’s like this: If you have 64 eggs in eight boxes, you’ve got an average of eight eggs per box. Add 20 more eggs and two more boxes, and the average bumps up to 8.4.

Further, Princeton is showing off giant-killing traits across multiple key dimensions. Yes, the Tigers always play deliberately and shoot lots of threes. But against Arizona, which had trouble protecting the ball all year, Princeton forced 13 turnovers. And against Missouri, one of the country’s worst teams on the defensive glass, Princeton had 16 — 16! — offensive rebounds. The Tigers are exploiting their opponents’ weaknesses to grab extra possessions without taking any edge off their own basic style.

Finally, there’s this: In the tournament, some identity to protect a team from an off night is better than none at all, whether you’re a favorite or a longshot. Creighton is an excellent team, with success largely based on outstanding shooting efficiency at both ends. But as we’ve written before, our model sees the Bluejays as a generic giant, with little taste for grabbing offensive rebounds or generating turnovers. Princeton is a sharpshooting killer, which takes 41.1% of its field-goal attempts from beyond the arc. When overdogs and potential Cinderellas from each of these families have met in past tournaments, the contests have yielded upsets in 40% of matchups.

At this late date, no 15-seed could be anywhere near a favorite — and Creighton just hung 85 points on Baylor. But Slingshot is seeing what we’ve all been watching. Princeton has a puncher’s chance to make the Elite Eight.

[Husky_U]

Let's do this boys. Get r dun.

[Omaha1]

Appreciate the good wishes. Big day for our guys.

[sju88grad]

Normally, Princeton would be a team I would bandwagon hop for but not tonight! Go Jays!!

[Omaha1]

Great start offensively for the Jays.

[Omaha1]

Great start offensively for the Jays.

Terrible defensive start for the Jays.

[kayako]

Great start offensively for the Jays.

Terrible defensive start for the Jays.

I think part of it was to not get in foul trouble. Nobody has 2 fouls (after 2 really quick fouls) and they got to the half with the lead. I didn't like the attempted 2 for 1, but gotta like where Creighton sits right now.

[kmacker69]

Looking better in the second half. Playing to your strengths.