How big is November 8 for the Big East?

[Bill Marsh]

Prediction: Providence beats BC in close game.

This is a tough one to call. BC has everyone back from what was a mediocre team last year. They have no major recruits coming in. Providence was a little better team last year but has lost PG Vincent Council from that team. BC won last year's match up.

So why pick PC? Council didn't play in last year's game and it was only Kris Dunn's 2nd game in the lineup. The game was played at Chestnut Hill and BC won by only 3 points. This year's game will be played at Providence. Both teams have everyone back for the 2 teams that matched up last year, but PC is the team that has done the best job improving itself with new recruits. Kris Dunn is now an experienced player and should be able to do a good job running the team as Council's replacement at the point. This rivalry game figures to be close, but unlike last year, everything favors the Friars this time around.

[Bill Marsh]

Prediction: St. John's beats Wisconsin

St. John's is in excellent position to win a first game of the season because their trip to Europe gave them a chance to get organized early and get a head start on most other teams. In addition, they have everybody back, so this is a continuation of last year, not breaking in a new bunch.

In contrast, Wisconsin has a bit of rebuilding to do. They lost 3 starters from last year's team, who were their top 3 rebounders and 2 of their top 3 scorers. They are not bringing in any recruits who are considered immediate impact players on the front line. Wiscy did not play particularly well away from the Big Ten last year (9-5), losing to every good team they played OOC. Their defense is effective at at keeping scoring down primarily because they play a deliberate, ball control style which keeps scoring down for both teams. Their on ball defense is especially effective at stifling 3-point shooting. Teams that run and teams that can score inside can be effective against them. Sounds like St. John's to me. It will be interesting to see how the new rule affects their defensive play.

Of course Wisconsin also took a foreign trip this summer (to Canada) so that kind of cancels out that advantage. I also disagree with the type of team that gives Wisconsin trouble. They lost to Ole Miss in the tourney but that was the only fast team they lost to. Almost all the other loses were to teams who's pace was in the 200s Only 2 other schools they lost to played faster than the 200s and they were both in the 100s.

Their record against fast teams last year (pace ranking higher than 100) was 3-1.

I disagree that Wiscinsin's Canadian trip negates St. John's advantage. First of all, Wisconsin is a rebuilding team while St. John's has everyone back. Wisconsin needs a lot more time than a summer trip to get everything in order. With everyone back, the summer gave St. John's a head start to pick up where they left off.

Second , the Wiscinsin trip was one week, 4 games. The St. John's trip was 2 weeks, 5 games. St. John's not only had an extra game but they had 2 weeks of practice instead of one.

Third, St. John's played against European professional teams. Wisconsin played against only one team of professionals. They played against 2 Canadian college teams, which is not top flight American college basketball. Their other game was against a team of prep school players. They simply did not match up against the same level of challenge to raise their game that St. John's did.

My point about the Wisconsin style was not about pace. It was about teams that rely primarily on 2-point shooting. Wisconsin held teams to 20% on three's. That was the most effective part of their defense. Teams that don't rely on the three are not at as much of a disadvantage against Wiscy's D. St. John's had one of the lowest number of 3 point attempts in the country last year.

[stever20]

It's the bubble teams that have to worry. I mean, we're going to have a league where 5th and 6th place teams are like 10-8 or 9-9. If you only go 8-5 OOC, you better be 11-7 in conference to feel comfortable at 19-12. It's gonna be hard to go 11-7 quite frankly. That's why you have to do so well OOC.

Also- I give you as an example last year Cincy and Providence....
Cincy last year was 12-1 OOC and 9-9 in conference play. 1-1 in the BET.
Providence last year was 8-4 OOC and 9-9 in conference play. 0-1 in the BET.
Cincy got in not even as a last 4 team out.
Providence was NIT bound- and only a 4 seed to boot. If Providence had won at least 1-2 of the 4 games they lost by a total of 9 points, they probably are in the tournament. I mean, instead of being 17-14 they're 19-12. Lot different there.

I think that's what I've been saying, like potentially Prov, BU, or SHU. But reading this thread it seems like most believe the entire league has that same early pressure, like with the Hoyas. I'm like damn right I hope they beat Oregon to a bloody pulp (it'll help SHU if we beat them down later) but come on they'll be dancing in march and whatever happens from there is the madness!

I'd throw St Johns in that group. And, if the conference is a bunch of 11-7 or 10-8 teams- all of the teams that finish there need their OOC wins to get in.

I do think as well if Georgetown, Marquette, Creighton, etc struggle early- that's going to lead to a lot of folks dismissing the BE before things get going. We have to perform on the floor against the other power conferences.

[Dew]

I think it's huge personally. Win one impressively of somehow get both and that's the lead CBB story nationally, even if its just for one news cycle. Lose both and the haters will all come out of the woodwork.

[stever20]

I think it's huge personally. Win one impressively of somehow get both and that's the lead CBB story nationally, even if its just for one news cycle. Lose both and the haters will all come out of the woodwork.

I think realistically it's 3- adding that Providence/BC game. I think we need to win that Providence game and at worst split the other 2 games.

0-3 would be real bad.

[Dew]

I think it's huge personally. Win one impressively of somehow get both and that's the lead CBB story nationally, even if its just for one news cycle. Lose both and the haters will all come out of the woodwork.

I think realistically it's 3- adding that Providence/BC game. I think we need to win that Providence game and at worst split the other 2 games.

0-3 would be real bad.

I hope and expect PC to win, but that won't register nationally at all. Beating teams that have been ranked like Oregon and Wisconsin will.

[stever20]

I think it's huge personally. Win one impressively of somehow get both and that's the lead CBB story nationally, even if its just for one news cycle. Lose both and the haters will all come out of the woodwork.

I think realistically it's 3- adding that Providence/BC game. I think we need to win that Providence game and at worst split the other 2 games.

0-3 would be real bad.

I hope and expect PC to win, but that won't register nationally at all. Beating teams that have been ranked like Oregon and Wisconsin will.

I think on it's own, no, but if they lose, and the other 2 teams lose- that's just more ammo if you know what I mean.

[dmac80]

I agree with the others that if the BE goes 3-0 or 0-3 that will be made into a story and a big deal. We live in a world now where everything is over-hyped and over-analyzed, usually for a short period, say 24 hours, then everyone moves on to something else. The early OOC games will see a roller coaster of stories and perceptions about the BE, what;s important is as we go into league play that the majority of the league did well OOC. Then the stories will cover the teams in league play and we'll see how we end up going into the BET.

For PC the BC game is huge, expecting a good crowd, I heard FS1 is giving out white T's to the first 7500 fans. Could be close to a sell out (12,400)from what I am hearing.

[JohnT]

I agree with the others that if the BE goes 3-0 or 0-3 that will be made into a story and a big deal. We live in a world now where everything is over-hyped and over-analyzed, usually for a short period, say 24 hours, then everyone moves on to something else. The early OOC games will see a roller coaster of stories and perceptions about the BE, what;s important is as we go into league play that the majority of the league did well OOC. Then the stories will cover the teams in league play and we'll see how we end up going into the BET.

This +1. Every OOC game is huge this year.

[stever20]

I'll say an OOC game that I think will be one of the most important.

Georgetown vs Michigan St @ MSG, Feb 1

If Georgetown is near the top of the conference and can beat Michigan St, that's just huge for the league. The last chance to make a statement OOC.