Welcome to The Holy Land of Hoops

Nova and Butler with extremely important games. A split is really important with those 2....

but 2 other real tricky games
Rutgers @ Seton Hall
SMU @ Georgetown

after tomorrow these are all the big OOC games left prior to conference play starting

Tue 12/18
Creighton @ Oklahoma
Xavier @ Missouri

Fri 12/21
Buffalo @ Marquette
Providence @ Texas

Sat 12/22
UConn vs Villanova
Seton Hall @ Maryland
BC @ DePaul

Sat 12/29
Butler @ Florida

So 8 really big games, of which the league is underdogs in 5 of the 8 games. Going even 4-4 would be good. The problem is that 2 of the 3 games where the league is favored in won't help much in getting teams better positioned for the tourney. Marquette really win or lose is in great shape.. And a DePaul win won't really get them on track to make the tourney as their OOC schedule is really weak. Only other favorite is Villanova- and that could be a HUGE game for them to avoid 5 OOC losses. But in 4 of 5 projected losses- the loss would be really bad for team... And could be 5 of 5 if Butler loses to Indiana tomorrow.

Only the biggest of AAC homers would call SMU at home "tricky" lol. They're 6-4 against the 337th ranked schedule (KenPom). If Georgetown loses this game, it's because they shit the bed.

The games are important to each individual team but you are making it like the league has to split or the league is in trouble. You put too much negative spin on things. The league has done very well OOC.

Hall2012 wrote:Only the biggest of AAC homers would call SMU at home "tricky" lol. They're 6-4 against the 337th ranked schedule (KenPom). If Georgetown loses this game, it's because they shit the bed.

SMU's best player was out for 3 of the losses. The 1 loss he played in, vs TCU- they lose to them by 8(with fouls late increasing the margin). KP has it a 4 point game with Georgetown only a 66% chance of winning.

And TCU's next game was vs USC in LA and they only beat them by 35....

It's definitely a tricky game. Not to mention- SMU's finals ended on Wednesday, while for Georgetown they just started yesterday.... That always is a factor in games at this point of the year.

billyfa wrote:The games are important to each individual team but you are making it like the league has to split or the league is in trouble. You put too much negative spin on things. The league has done very well OOC.

It really hasn't though..... If the league loses both tomorrow (winning the 2 tricky games) and then loses the 5 games they're projected to lose......

St John's- undefeated- but with a crap SOS.
1 loss teams- none
2 loss teams- Marquette(in great shape), DePaul(bad SOS), Georgetown(bad SOS)
3 loss teams- none
4 loss teams- Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence
5 loss team- Xavier

I'm sorry but that's not spin. That is what the league would look like entering conference play.

Really only Marquette would you say would be a lock to get in at 9-9 in conference play- unless St John's upsets Duke in Feb. That limits the number of bids the league could possibly get. Teams with 14 or 15 losses do not make the tourney.

If those 7 losses happen, this would be the most losses the Big East has had since the split. The league already has more losses this year OOC than it had all last year OOC. I don't think many people would say the league has done very well OOC.

stever20 wrote:

Hall2012 wrote:Only the biggest of AAC homers would call SMU at home "tricky" lol. They're 6-4 against the 337th ranked schedule (KenPom). If Georgetown loses this game, it's because they shit the bed.

SMU's best player was out for 3 of the losses. The 1 loss he played in, vs TCU- they lose to them by 8(with fouls late increasing the margin). KP has it a 4 point game with Georgetown only a 66% chance of winning.

And TCU's next game was vs USC in LA and they only beat them by 35....

It's definitely a tricky game. Not to mention- SMU's finals ended on Wednesday, while for Georgetown they just started yesterday.... That always is a factor in games at this point of the year.

GTown could win or lose. But they way you slant information is crazy. "Georgetown only has a 66% chance of winning". And you love the transitive property when it works in the favor of an AAC team. Let's use the transitive property for 2017 - St. John's beat Villanova, so they should have beaten every team Villanova beat (eye roll).

As usual, this post is all about avoiding negatives rather than achieving positives. It's never, ever about "this could be a really great resume boosting win" but rather "can't lose this and get to X losses".

No mention of St. John's? Currently #27 in NET with 3 games we're favored in? You won't mention them, because they're expected to win rather than lose. Even if we lose to Duke, it looks like our OOC could end up being a positive. Nobody (including myself) saw that coming.

billyfa wrote:

stever20 wrote:

Hall2012 wrote:Only the biggest of AAC homers would call SMU at home "tricky" lol. They're 6-4 against the 337th ranked schedule (KenPom). If Georgetown loses this game, it's because they shit the bed.

SMU's best player was out for 3 of the losses. The 1 loss he played in, vs TCU- they lose to them by 8(with fouls late increasing the margin). KP has it a 4 point game with Georgetown only a 66% chance of winning.

And TCU's next game was vs USC in LA and they only beat them by 35....

It's definitely a tricky game. Not to mention- SMU's finals ended on Wednesday, while for Georgetown they just started yesterday.... That always is a factor in games at this point of the year.

GTown could win or lose. But they way you slant information is crazy. "Georgetown only has a 66% chance of winning". And you love the transitive property when it works in the favor of an AAC team. Let's use the transitive property for 2017 - St. John's beat Villanova, so they should have beaten every team Villanova beat (eye roll).

Is TCU a good team? Yes..... Was SMU extremely competitive when they played them? Yes.... Are they a different team than when their best player was out? I'd say so. It's got absolutely nothing to do with the AAC.

And don't yell at me about the odds. That's what Ken Pom provided......

adoraz wrote:As usual, this post is all about avoiding negatives rather than achieving positives. It's never, ever about "this could be a really great resume boosting win" but rather "can't lose this and get to X losses".

No mention of St. John's? Currently #27 in NET with 3 games we're favored in? You won't mention them, because they're expected to win rather than lose. Even if we lose to Duke, it looks like our OOC could end up being a positive. Nobody (including myself) saw that coming.

For a lot of teams in the Big East- if not most- it's about not ending the season with 14 losses. Teams with only 13 losses get in the tourney a lot. Teams with 14 losses don't a high majority of the time. So it's pretty formula driven quite frankly. Last year 2 teams with at least 14 losses made the tourney. Texas and Alabama- both with top 20 overall SOS. 2 of the 1st 4 teams left out of the NCAA tourney had 14 losses.

The question I have with St John's is going to be when they lose, what does that do with their rating. I mean we've seen other undefeated when they lose their rating takes a major tumble. Given winning percentage is a part of the formula- when that slips, the rating will slip....

stever20 wrote:

adoraz wrote:As usual, this post is all about avoiding negatives rather than achieving positives. It's never, ever about "this could be a really great resume boosting win" but rather "can't lose this and get to X losses".

No mention of St. John's? Currently #27 in NET with 3 games we're favored in? You won't mention them, because they're expected to win rather than lose. Even if we lose to Duke, it looks like our OOC could end up being a positive. Nobody (including myself) saw that coming.

For a lot of teams in the Big East- if not most- it's about not ending the season with 14 losses. Teams with only 13 losses get in the tourney a lot. Teams with 14 losses don't a high majority of the time. So it's pretty formula driven quite frankly. Last year 2 teams with at least 14 losses made the tourney. Texas and Alabama- both with top 20 overall SOS. 2 of the 1st 4 teams left out of the NCAA tourney had 14 losses.

The question I have with St John's is going to be when they lose, what does that do with their rating. I mean we've seen other undefeated when they lose their rating takes a major tumble. Given winning percentage is a part of the formula- when that slips, the rating will slip....

Care to cite an example of where losing caused a team to take a major tumble? I've been following closely and haven't seen that happen. Teams like NC State and San Fran are still top 20 despite one loss and mediocre schedules (especially San Fran). Go ahead and explain San Fran to me.

You really need to stop looking at the number of wins or losses. That's such an outdated way of thinking and will be basically irrelevant this year and especially next year with more conferences going to 20 games. Big East has a really strong SOS and is still #3 in RPI. League is doing just fine. We'll get 4+ teams in.

Look at NET rather than record. I know you prefer record since AAC has a very weak SOS, but the NET is far more important.

NET:
#22 Marquette
#27 St. John's
#34 Villanova
#43 Butler
#58 Creighton
#64 Georgetown
#71 Xavier
#85 Seton Hall
#90 DePaul
#112 Providence

4 teams solidly in the NCAA range. 3 teams in the NIT range. Last 3 teams just outside the NIT range.

Again, you need to stop thinking of the season as split into two (non conference and conference). For example, if Nova gets to 5 losses OOC I could easily see them making the Tournament since they have a very high ceiling (talent) and may end up winning the Big East. Think outside the box a bit here.