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MW just announced they're expanding to a 20 conference game slate beginning in 2022-23. This starts after the initial two-year agreement for the MW-A10 challenge series expires and, presumably, is not renewed. The vote was 7-4, with SDSU, UNLV, Nevada, & Air Force as the dissenters.

This leaves Big 12, SEC, A10, AAC at 18 and WCC at 16 conference games. Big 12 and WCC each have 10 members, so they couldn't. A10 has been seriously discussing expanding to a 20 conference game slate for the past year and a half, according to their commissioner McGlade. AAC will be down to 11 schools and could do a true round-robin, if they so desired. SEC... It just means more.

Multiple 1-bid leagues are already playing 20-game schedules—Big Sky, MAAC, Southland, & Sun Belt—with more announcing they will—Big West & MAC—and expect others could follow suit—Big South (women already play 20 games), CUSA, Horizon (PFW gets them to 11 schools), NEC (Merrimack got them to 11 schools), & OVC.

And paired with the NET formula changes, it'll be interesting to see how well we fare with at-large selections going forward.

The 20-game conference format is not going anywhere for the foreseeable future (maybe later in the decade, if the data proves otherwise). Between the power conference designation/creation, the 20-game format, and the creation of the NET, this is just another ripple effect of the power conferences consolidating their hold - and strengthening the likelihood of more of their teams making the tournament (despite a weaker record than the non-P conference teams), not to mention maximizing their revenues. These moves were driven by the opportunity to make more money (by playing more conference/P programs), as well as the creation/manipulation of the NET, which gives power conference programs a leg-up on non-power conference programs.

Moving forward, the SEC can easily move towards a 20-game conference format, without expansion and without much disruption to their metrics. The SEC, arguably, has been the most improved basketball conference in the past decade, as they have heavily invested in facilities and coaches (which has immensely improved recruiting and talent levels). The A10, IMO, is also well positioned. Not only do they have 14 members, but they can "stack" the additional games against expected top-ranked teams, while keeping the bottom programs together with their extra games, thus maximizing the advanced data.

The WCC and AAC, IMO, suffer the most from this. The WCC have a very clear top (Gonzaga/St. Mary's) and not much else. Adding conference games only hurts their top. If anything, I would expect - long-term - that Gonzaga would once again flirt with the MWC. The MWC had six programs with 11+ conference wins this past year, and adding a Gonzaga/BYU (non-football) combo would absolutely help both programs needing a 20-game schedule, while also adding better overall programs to their yearly schedules. The AAC is probably worst off. They cannot, and I mean CANNOT, go to a 20-game schedule as long as they have Tulane/ECU on-board (not to mention UCF/USF/SMU). It would absolutely torpedo programs like Cincinnati/Memphis/Houston/Wichita State annually (even in wins, it harms the metrics). Not sure what they can do. And, to be clear/once again re-emphasize, programs like VCU, Dayton or SLU aren't coming. The best bet would be to go to 12 with a full member that is heavily invested in football/basketball, within the footprint, and has shown potential to compete in both. I'd overwhelming support them grabbing UAB (but many AAC fans think UAB is beneath them; that is irony at its finest).

For the Big 12, they will likely stand pat with an 18-game conference schedule. With the BE/B12 Battle, as well as the ability for many of the programs to schedule OOC, they should be fine. If absolutely needed, they could do an 8-team challenge with the AAC (which would benefit both leagues). Due to the CCG de-regulation, they could also simply just add one member; one that is within the footprint and is committed to high-level football and basketball (Houston?).

From @JonRothstein:

"Sources: The Atlantic 10 is not expected to move forward with a 20-game conference schedule in men's basketball. Topic was discussed during last week's league meetings."

why is the wcc and gonzaga going to suffer? didn't the wcc just give in to gonzaga so they have less conference games and more flexibility OOC? has things changed?

conferences aren't going to go to 20 games if it's not worth it to them. they don't NEED to go to 20. the A10 was only considering because other conferences going to 20 games decreases OOC opportunities for the A10. apparently they felt they are better off at 18 as per Rothstein.

the only reason for a 1 bid conference to go to 20 might be for inventory due to the decreased OOC games of other conferences; the effect of the bottom on the conference probably doesn't change anything... it's still a low metric 1 bid conference.

middle tier conferences probably can still get quality OOC games to avoid being forced to go to 20 and the trap of emphasizing the bottom of the conference.