Top 25- Getting & Staying Ranked (2018-19)

[adoraz]

Starting to get some polls in, so figured I'd make this thread now as I do every year.

The real purpose of this thread throughout the year will be to discuss what each team would need to do to get/stay ranked in the AP. However, since the AP poll is not out now we can discuss other pre-season polls.

My prediction for BE AP ranking (not really going out on a limb here):
#6-12: Nova (#9- ESPN, #13- NCAA.com)
#18-24: Marquette (#22- ESPN, #19- NCAA.com)
#24-RV: St. John's (#25- ESPN, NR in NCAA.com but before Heron decision)
RV: Butler (#33- NCAA.com)/Providence (#36- NCAA.com)/Xavier

NV: Creighton/Georgetown/Seton Hall/DePaul

I think pretty much every team in our league will be given benefit of the doubt if they have an impressive OOC. Although we will probably only start out with two ranked teams (Nova/Marquette... and even Marquette is no guarantee), SJU should at worst be RV right outside the rankings. Butler, Providence, Xavier, and possibly Creighton will all likely be a good win or two away from getting ranked. With the Gavitt Games early, we'll have plenty of chances.

Going to be a tougher than usual year, but we don't necessarily need to go above and beyond. We just need Nova to remain great, Marquette/SJU to play to expectations, and one from the group of the other 7 to outperform expectations (which seems to happen every year). If we can start BE play with 3 ranked teams and a team or two RV, we'll be in great shape.

Thoughts on who'll be ranked to start the year?

[Wizard of Westroads]

The preseason KenPom ratings point to a wild year in the BE: 9 teams in the top 57, with last-place DePaul at 77. 

5 Nova
29 Marquette
31 Butler
33 Creighton
39 St. John's
49 Providence
54 Seton Hall
55 Xavier
57 Georgetown
77 DePaul

It's easy to get caught up in the individual snubs and head-scratchers, but that's a good look at what the season is going to be like. The difference between 29 and 57 isn't that great. By comparison last year, it would be like the difference between Creighton (30) and Marquette (53) or Providence (63). The difference amounts to winning a couple of close games.

[Jet915]

The preseason KenPom ratings point to a wild year in the BE: 9 teams in the top 57, with last-place DePaul at 77. 

5 Nova
29 Marquette
31 Butler
33 Creighton
39 St. John's
49 Providence
54 Seton Hall
55 Xavier
57 Georgetown
77 DePaul

It's easy to get caught up in the individual snubs and head-scratchers, but that's a good look at what the season is going to be like. The difference between 29 and 57 isn't that great. By comparison last year, it would be like the difference between Creighton (30) and Marquette (53) or Providence (63). The difference amounts to winning a couple of close games.

If Depaul ends up 77, this league is gonna be tough....

[Jet915]

Sounds like transfers with prior D1 experience are now being calulated into the rankings...

https://kenpom.com/blog/preseason-ratings-now-with-transfers/

[milksteak]

For those without KenPom, the Big East is 5th preseason, although 3rd-5th are almost identical in ranking.

1. Big 12 Conference +17.78
2. Atlantic Coast Conference +16.19
3. Big Ten Conference +14.77
4. Southeastern Conference +14.30
5. Big East Conference +14.24
6. Pac 12 Conference +9.00
7. American Athletic Conference +6.30
8. Atlantic 10 Conference +3.37
9. West Coast Conference +3.29
10. Missouri Valley Conference +2.69
11. Mountain West Conference +2.56
12. Mid American Conference +0.87
13. Colonial Athletic Association -0.67
14. Ivy League -1.00
15. Conference USA -1.08
16. Sun Belt Conference -2.39
17. Summit League -2.75
18. Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference -3.51
19. Big Sky Conference -4.47
20. Big West Conference -4.57
21. Western Athletic Conference -4.93
22. Southern Conference -5.63
23. Patriot League -5.64
24. Ohio Valley Conference -5.92
25. Horizon League -6.79
26. America East Conference -7.04
27. Big South Conference -7.30
28. Atlantic Sun Conference -7.38
29. Northeast Conference -9.66
30. Southland Conference -10.31
31. Southwestern Athletic Conference -16.19
32. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference -17.28

[milksteak]

KenPom also predicts a very balanced league.

Villanova 14-4
Marquette 10-8
Butler 10-8
Creighton 10-8
St. John's 9-9
Providence 8-10
Seton Hall 8-10
Xavier 8-10
Georgetown 8-10
DePaul 6-12

[kayako]

The preseason KenPom ratings point to a wild year in the BE: 9 teams in the top 57, with last-place DePaul at 77. 

5 Nova
29 Marquette
31 Butler
33 Creighton
39 St. John's
49 Providence
54 Seton Hall
55 Xavier
57 Georgetown
77 DePaul

Fits the theme of lower highs & higher lows. I believe we ranged 1-99 last season.

[milksteak]

The preseason KenPom ratings point to a wild year in the BE: 9 teams in the top 57, with last-place DePaul at 77. 

5 Nova
29 Marquette
31 Butler
33 Creighton
39 St. John's
49 Providence
54 Seton Hall
55 Xavier
57 Georgetown
77 DePaul

Fits the theme of lower highs & higher lows. I believe we ranged 1-99 last season.

Correct. They were 100+ for most of the season though. They got as high as 133 in early December.

[stever20]

the thing that would be interesting with those ratings- only 2 home tier 1 games, but all road games but 1 being a tier 1 game. Going to make the overall tier 1 records maybe look pretty poor.....

[marquette]

For those without KenPom, the Big East is 5th preseason, although 3rd-5th are almost identical in ranking.

1. Big 12 Conference +17.78
2. Atlantic Coast Conference +16.19
3. Big Ten Conference +14.77
4. Southeastern Conference +14.30
5. Big East Conference +14.24
6. Pac 12 Conference +9.00
7. American Athletic Conference +6.30
8. Atlantic 10 Conference +3.37
9. West Coast Conference +3.29
10. Missouri Valley Conference +2.69
11. Mountain West Conference +2.56
12. Mid American Conference +0.87
13. Colonial Athletic Association -0.67
14. Ivy League -1.00
15. Conference USA -1.08
16. Sun Belt Conference -2.39
17. Summit League -2.75
18. Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference -3.51
19. Big Sky Conference -4.47
20. Big West Conference -4.57
21. Western Athletic Conference -4.93
22. Southern Conference -5.63
23. Patriot League -5.64
24. Ohio Valley Conference -5.92
25. Horizon League -6.79
26. America East Conference -7.04
27. Big South Conference -7.30
28. Atlantic Sun Conference -7.38
29. Northeast Conference -9.66
30. Southland Conference -10.31
31. Southwestern Athletic Conference -16.19
32. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference -17.28

That drop-off between 5 and 6 is precipitous. I know it is sort of similar every year, but at some point you have to pull the Pac 12's "P" card.