Hypothetical: If UConn MBB was entering the BE as a top team

[marquette]

In answer to the stated question, yes I believe it would have been a bigger splash initially to add UConn 5 years ago. The additional championship would probably also have solidified our status earlier and given another perception boost.

As far as whether UConn is less of a great add now I'd say definitely no. Sure, Calhoun's success is probably not going to be repeated. There are very few coaches with his resume. I still think UConn is a top 25 basketball school even without a once-in-a-lifetime coach. The facilities and institutional support are there, as is the history.

I think a lot of people don't fully understand the Kevin Ollie situation and how trapped the university was. Ollie was a beloved player, an assistant to Calhoun, an alumni, and a hand-picked successor. On top of all that, in the early years it seemed like he was the best choice after some decent early recruiting and winning a NC in his second season. Then his personal life unraveled and Ollie gave up on coaching, but refused to quit. For a while it seemed like UConn might not be able to fire him due to his connections to the school, even as the team regressed year after year. They were able to find an excuse in NCAA rules violations and the administration acted in time to save the program from further damage.

Hurley has them on the right track but Ollie left a huge mess and it will take time to recover. Look for them to be in the top 4 of the AAC this year and an outside shot at an NCAA bid (unlikely, but my fingers are crossed). I'll be rooting for them in every game they aren't playing a BE team this year. Next year they should be legitimately expected to be in the tournament. I see nothing but progress going forward.

All this said, UConn joining was never going to happen 5 years ago. There was too much invested in football to give up the dream without even trying. Their best years weren't so far behind them that they knew they would never be able to compete with the better teams in the AAC. At the time there was a legitimate chance that UConn could be a top half football team, and their budget being larger than the incoming schools made that a reasonable expectation. Now, the view is that UConn is years away from being able to compete with even the mid-tier AAC schools on the football field. Rebuilding in the AAC is not realistic, with the travel and expenses in addition to their lack of tradition. Rebuilding against other independents and lower tier schools is possible. If UConn can get to 5-6 wins a season they can boost the perception of their program and continue to grow.

[SamElliott]

If UConn can get to 5-6 wins a season they can boost the perception of their program and continue to grow.

Not to play Devil's Advocate, but its no use for UConn to play FBS football anymore.

Even if they get 6 wins there is absolutely no shot they get rewarded with any form of post-season (or the money that gets distributed from that)

UConn needs to drop down. If they really can't afford a travel budget, then they can't afford to play football at a level that doesn't allow their players to be rewarded. It will kill their already terrible recruiting classes.

As for basketball, UConn needs to win at a high level or they are in trouble.

Their fans have shown they wont support a loser. Jim Calhoun spoiled them. Plain and simple. Losing to Creighton, Xavier, Butler, DePaul, etc, wont bring any more fans than losing to Tulsa. I've never bought into the theory that home fans show up to see the opponent. It has never worked that way for any of the worst teams in the best conferences. Hell, the University of Texas is having a hard time drawing solid numbers in basketball and they're the biggest brand in a P5 league. Shaka Smart has just stolen all hope.

Hurley may or may not work. I would've placed a bigger wager on Shaka Smart working out. Hurley already has a losing year in the AAC under his belt, and he is on a 7 year contract now since it got extended due to the sanctions. UConn just paid the AAC 17 million. If Hurley turns out like Smart, they will have to ride out that deal.

[scoscox]

The opponent can’t save attendance if you’re bad but it definitely gives you a boost if you’re competitive. 23 of our 25 highest attended games are all big east games and the other 2 are shootouts. We’ve had 100%+ capacity since joining the big east. It took our attendance from great to spectacular. On a macro level you’re right that it won’t save a bad team but it will supercharge a good team

[gtmoBlue]

good post Sam. Great points. Winning cures all ails, so if UConn can win fine. But if DePaul, StJ, Gtwn, Butler and the rest of the lower tier beats up on them to start it'll be tough going.
Fortunately they seem to be recruiting well, so I don't envision them replacing StJ at the bottom immediately.

[billyjack]

Couple of responses to Sam Elliott, who doesn't know what he's talking about (but totally impressed by your mustache and deep voice, cuz I'm assuming you're the famous actor that starred in "Lifeguard" among other things).

- there are so many freakin bowls... 35 of them? So 70 teams need to fill those slots. And there are maybe 120 FBS teams. Teams at 6-6 always make bowls.

- UConn fans historically have shown up to games and they've always had a great fanbase, even when they've sucked in the Big East going way back. Playing Tulane and East Carolina and Tulsa in front of 13 people is the entire problem.

[SamElliott]

Fortunately they seem to be recruiting well, so I don't envision them replacing StJ at the bottom immediately.

That’s just it. I’ve looked at the guys UConn has been on this year and it hasn’t been impressive.

This isn’t the same program it was under Calhoun. That’s not a shot so much as an observation. The new UConn’s recruiting wins will be over Seton Hall and St John’s, moreso than P5 teams.

[SamElliott]

UConn fans historically have shown up to games and they've always had a great fanbase, even when they've sucked in the Big East going way back. Playing Tulane and East Carolina and Tulsa in front of 13 people is the entire problem.

In a healthy program, fans show up against everyone. Tulsa has a winning record against UConn, which is why they don’t go.

[Bogg]

For the record, Uconn's fans don't show up to the tune of averaging 400 fewer fans per game than Villanova last year. Sure, getting back over 10k average is important, but their attendance crisis is relative to where they were.

[GoldenWarrior11]

If UCLA was put in the MWC, their men's basketball and football attendance would take a hit, definitely. Now, the MWC fan-base might say otherwise (not unlike the fans of the AAC), but it is just reality. If Nebraska was put in the MAC, if Miami was put in C-USA, if Mississippi State was put in the Sun Belt or if Baylor was put in the American, fan interest would drop because the fan base would recognize that a demotion, relegation, or however you would like to classify it as, has occurred. When UConn "joined" the American (and I realized it did not join anything, it simply stayed with Big East Football, which became the American), it would be incredibly difficult to find a UConn fan/supporter that felt like that they were joining a superior league; however, for schools like Houston, UCF, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, ECU, Tulsa and Temple (and their fan bases), they instantly knew they were joining a better league because 1.) the payouts were better, 2.) the bowl access was superior (the AAC took the BE's AQ spot in '14) and 3.) the exposure on the networks was much more far-reaching. Those programs gained value by associating with UConn; it was definitely not the same case the other way around, and it never could be.

Houston, similarly, was de-regulated from the SWC in 1996 to C-USA. Their attendance definitely got affected going from playing Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU annually to Southern Mississippi, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis and Tulane. Unfortunately for Houston, they have now been associated with those programs as long (24 years) as their association within the SWC (25 years). Their "connections' to the power-Texas programs have eroded over time, and are locked-in to the AAC for the foreseeable future. UConn, at least, saw the writing on the wall and decided to pivot away from their membership in the AAC and get back to at least salvaging their Olympic sports with an elite non-football conference. Each passing year for UConn in the AAC was not only a year not in the P5, but also a year removed from their associations with Villanova, Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence and the Big East brand.

[ArmyVet]

If UCLA was put in the MWC, their men's basketball and football attendance would take a hit, definitely. Now, the MWC fan-base might say otherwise (not unlike the fans of the AAC), but it is just reality. If Nebraska was put in the MAC, if Miami was put in C-USA, if Mississippi State was put in the Sun Belt or if Baylor was put in the American, fan interest would drop because the fan base would recognize that a demotion, relegation, or however you would like to classify it as, has occurred. When UConn "joined" the American (and I realized it did not join anything, it simply stayed with Big East Football, which became the American), it would be incredibly difficult to find a UConn fan/supporter that felt like that they were joining a superior league; however, for schools like Houston, UCF, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, ECU, Tulsa and Temple (and their fan bases), they instantly knew they were joining a better league because 1.) the payouts were better, 2.) the bowl access was superior (the AAC took the BE's AQ spot in '14) and 3.) the exposure on the networks was much more far-reaching. Those programs gained value by associating with UConn; it was definitely not the same case the other way around, and it never could be.

Houston, similarly, was de-regulated from the SWC in 1996 to C-USA. Their attendance definitely got affected going from playing Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU annually to Southern Mississippi, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis and Tulane. Unfortunately for Houston, they have now been associated with those programs as long (24 years) as their association within the SWC (25 years). Their "connections' to the power-Texas programs have eroded over time, and are locked-in to the AAC for the foreseeable future. UConn, at least, saw the writing on the wall and decided to pivot away from their membership in the AAC and get back to at least salvaging their Olympic sports with an elite non-football conference. Each passing year for UConn in the AAC was not only a year not in the P5, but also a year removed from their associations with Villanova, Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence and the Big East brand.

Excellent post.