BUBBLEWATCH 2020

[kayako]

Sometimes, I think playing in the Wednesday game can be an advantage and I think that is the case with Xavier this season. But they definitely need to beat DePaul and take their best shot at Nova. I can't imagine Marquette completely falling out of the bracket with a loss to Seton Hall, but there will be some scoreboard watching in Milwaukee. A plausible scenario appears to be getting 7 teams in (not factoring in stealing a bid in the BET), and none of the 7 ending up in what Stever calls 7 to 10 pit of misery.

3/8 relevant games:

Memphis @ Houston - Tigers probably needs to win the AAC tournament at this point.

Tulsa @ Wichita State - The loser will probably need to win the AAC rodeo tournament. The winner, with a right path, can probably grab an at-large by making the finals.

Western Carolina vs. East Tennessee State - ETSU will probably end up NIT #1 seed if they lose, but you don't want to take that chance.

[Edrick]

What is wrong with a 7 seed? If you aren't the kind of team that is likely to lose a first round game, the 6 and 7 very well could be better than the 4 and 5. The longer you can stay away from the 1s, usually the better.

This year, there's really no difference between the 1,2, and 3s so less so though

[stever20]

Sometimes, I think playing in the Wednesday game can be an advantage and I think that is the case with Xavier this season. But they definitely need to beat DePaul and take their best shot at Nova. I can't imagine Marquette completely falling out of the bracket with a loss to Seton Hall, but there will be some scoreboard watching in Milwaukee. A plausible scenario appears to be getting 7 teams in (not factoring in stealing a bid in the BET), and none of the 7 ending up in what Stever calls 7 to 10 pit of misery.

3/8 relevant games:

Memphis @ Houston - Tigers probably needs to win the AAC tournament at this point.

Tulsa @ Wichita State - The loser will probably need to win the AAC rodeo tournament. The winner, with a right path, can probably grab an at-large by making the finals.

Western Carolina vs. East Tennessee State - ETSU will probably end up NIT #1 seed if they lose, but you don't want to take that chance.

Might not have any in the pit of misery.... BUT might find Marquette and Xavier in Dayton very easily. That's almost worse than the pit of misery because you get a tough FF game, and then have to win twice.

Xavier going to be sweating things out big time if they lose to Villanova.

[scoscox]

What is wrong with a 7 seed? If you aren't the kind of team that is likely to lose a first round game, the 6 and 7 very well could be better than the 4 and 5. The longer you can stay away from the 1s, usually the better.

This year, there's really no difference between the 1,2, and 3s so less so though

... but you stay away from the 1's and 2's longer if you're the 3-6 seed. 7-10 seeds play them in the quarterfinals, 3-6 don't have to play until the semi's. that's the whole point of being the higher seed.

[kayako]

What is wrong with a 7 seed? If you aren't the kind of team that is likely to lose a first round game, the 6 and 7 very well could be better than the 4 and 5. The longer you can stay away from the 1s, usually the better.

This year, there's really no difference between the 1,2, and 3s so less so though

Numbers prove that you really don't want to be 8&9, and 6&11 is better than 7&10. But I agree with you, not as big a deal this season. Here are IMO top ten rd of 32 scenarios teams would like to avoid:

1. Kansas in Omaha.

2. Creighton in St. Louis if Zegarowski is healthy.

3. Duke in Greensboro.

4. Florida State in Tampa.

5. Michigan State anywhere.

6. Gonzaga in Spokane.

7. Nova in Albany.

8. Seton Hall in Albany.

9. San Diego State in Sacramento.

10. Dayton in Cleveland.

These teams will be spread out with 1-3 seeds.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Here are IMO top ten round of 32 scenarios teams would like to avoid:

1. Kansas in Omaha.
2. Creighton in St. Louis if Zegarowski is healthy.
3. Duke in Greensboro.
4. Florida State in Tampa.

5. Michigan State anywhere.
6. Gonzaga in Spokane.
7. Nova in Albany.
8. Seton Hall in Albany.

9. San Diego State in Sacramento.
10. Dayton in Cleveland.

These teams will be spread out with 1-3 seeds.

kayako – although you correctly prefaced your listing as an opinion, it purports to have an insider’s knowledge of what teams would like to avoid without providing any basis whatsoever for your reasoning, nor the criteria you considered and its associated weighting.

The order of your listing not-so-subtly suggests Creighton should be a No. 1 seed, Villanova and Seton Hall should be No. 2 seeds, with San Diego State and Dayton being the two No. 3 seeds to which you refer.

I respectfully suggest that in the process of compiling your listing, you failed to research the Dayton Flyers properly, so please allow me to add to your apparently limited knowledge:

1. Dayton is doing pretty well on the CBS Sports College Basketball Ratings homepage and on The 2020 Bracket Matrix.

2. The University of Dayton is the largest private university in Ohio, and has a huge alumni base in Cleveland.

3. No. 35 • DWAYNE COHILL – Dayton Flyers Official Roster

POSITION: Guard
HEIGHT: 6-2
CLASS: Sophomore
HOMETOWN: Cleveland, Ohio

High School
• Attended Holy Name High School, Cleveland, Ohio, where he scored 2,182 points - good for 31st place in Ohio high school basketball history
• Averaged 21.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.3 assists as a senior at Holy Name, while shooting 35 percent from three
• Named to First Team All-Ohio in Division II as a Senior
• Holds high school record for points
• Two-time First Team All-Ohio
• Consensus four star/top 100 prospect
• As a junior, was the only one in his class named to the Cleveland.com All-Stars First Team

……… Dwayne Cohill is very well known in Cleveland, and has a lot of fans, friends, family, and relatives living there who will come to see the Flyers play. So will everyone from Dayton who can get their hands on a ticket.

4. Link:

Dayton fans travel pretty good?

Dayton was rated #1 by the NCAA in traveling fan bases:

https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/dayton-flyers-lauded-for-traveling-fan-base/LRV7iBIMSODbMFEOSQdGWN/

https://www.ncaa.com/video/basketball-men/2016-11-02/high-five-traveling-fans-north-dakota-nebraska-dayton-notre-dame

In addition, they consistently average 12/13k per game on campus, even when they are down.

kayako – I admittedly don’t know much at all about Albany. Is it a big Nova/Seton Hall city?

In any event, your post warranted an informed reply, but I do not intend to debate it with you or other posters, as you are entitled to your opinion.

[kayako]

Only 1 bubble game to keep an eye on for Monday 3/9.

Wofford vs. ETSU

[stever20]

Only 1 bubble game to keep an eye on for Monday 3/9.

Wofford vs. ETSU

I think if it had been UNC Greensboro or even Furman, ETSU would have had a real shot at things. 23/26 of their D1 wins vs Q3/4. Just don't think it's good enough for them at all...

[cu blujs]

The 5 seed has been beaten 50 times since 1985. The 4 seed has lost 29 times. So, way better to get the 4 over the 5. The 6 seed has lost 52 times and the 7 seed has lost 55 times (all since 1985). So, the 6 and 7 seed are a better draw than the 5, because there is roughly the same percentage of upsets, yet the 6 or 7 don't have to play the 1 until the semis, while the 5 would face the 1 seed one round sooner. The 3 seed has lost 21 times and the 2 seed only 14 times, so chances of an upset drop dramatically with each see higher than the 4 (which of course makes sense, because you first round opponent is more likely to be a champion of a lower conference or a P6 team which finished lower half of the conference).

[DanofXav76]

Sometimes, I think playing in the Wednesday game can be an advantage and I think that is the case with Xavier this season. But they definitely need to beat DePaul and take their best shot at Nova. I can't imagine Marquette completely falling out of the bracket with a loss to Seton Hall, but there will be some scoreboard watching in Milwaukee. A plausible scenario appears to be getting 7 teams in (not factoring in stealing a bid in the BET), and none of the 7 ending up in what Stever calls 7 to 10 pit of misery.

3/8 relevant games:

Memphis @ Houston - Tigers probably needs to win the AAC tournament at this point.

Tulsa @ Wichita State - The loser will probably need to win the AAC rodeo tournament. The winner, with a right path, can probably grab an at-large by making the finals.

Western Carolina vs. East Tennessee State - ETSU will probably end up NIT #1 seed if they lose, but you don't want to take that chance.

Might not have any in the pit of misery.... BUT might find Marquette and Xavier in Dayton very easily. That's almost worse than the pit of misery because you get a tough FF game, and then have to win twice.

Xavier going to be sweating things out big time if they lose to Villanova.

Stever always being Suzy Sunshine. Don't ever change Stever!