Tourney Watch 3/4/22

[kayako]

Gotta give the BE (Johnnies) at least a couple percentage points. Come on man!

I think 2 teams with best chances in the BE are DePaul and SJU (excluding Xavier's having to win some games situation). Which makes me believe that it'll be better to not have DePaul/Johnnies match up wednesday if you're rooting for the BE to steal a bid. FWIW Georgetown had 0.5% chance to win the BET last year.

[stever20]

So Saturday we get the biggest bubble game so far probably with San Francisco and BYU. Like we've said- it's bigger for BYU than it is San Francisco.

[kayako]

So Saturday we get the biggest bubble game so far probably with San Francisco and BYU. Like we've said- it's bigger for BYU than it is San Francisco.

Well there’s the ovc title game.

It’s a bit of a dilemma for the wcc. BYU loses and they’re in decent shape for 3 bids. If BYU wins, we’re back to square one as 2-4 bids are still on the table and they have an agonizing wait until selection sunday.

[stever20]

So Saturday we get the biggest bubble game so far probably with San Francisco and BYU. Like we've said- it's bigger for BYU than it is San Francisco.

Well there’s the ovc title game.

It’s a bit of a dilemma for the wcc. BYU loses and they’re in decent shape for 3 bids. If BYU wins, we’re back to square one as 2-4 bids are still on the table and they have an agonizing wait until selection sunday.

I think San Francisco is far safer than you think. Their metrics are really good. And wouldn't be a bad loss at all.

[kayako]

I think San Francisco is far safer than you think. Their metrics are really good. And wouldn't be a bad loss at all.

If bracket matrix is correct, yeah they're pretty close to a lock. But if we are to believe bracketville, remember SDSU blew past them after 1 Q1 win earlier this week, suggesting how tight it is from late 30s to the cutoff line. If sf were to lose tomorrow, just a couple of teams behind them winning puts them in a precarious position. But I think SF wins tomorrow anyway. WCC's format will have really jobbed BYU having to play back to back.

[Husky_U]

I don't think San Fran is safe at all. Their resume looks VERY similar to Loyola Chicago (who beat them H2H and is at or below the cut line right now).

San Fran:
-NET: 26
-KenPom: 23
-Q1: 3-5, Q2: 5-2, Q3: 5-0, Q4: 9-1
-SOS: 78, NC SOS: 127
Road Record: 7-2
Wins vs Projected Tourney Teams: 1 (Davidson - also becomes a bubble team if they don't win the A10 AQ)

Loyola Chicago:
-NET: 29
-KenPom: 26
-Q1: 2-2, Q2: 5-4, Q3: 6-1, Q4: 9-0
-SOS: 114, NC SOS: 44
-Road Record: 8-3
-Wins vs Projected Tourney Teams: 1 (San Fran)

Best not lose to BYU IMO.

[stever20]

I don't think San Fran is safe at all. Their resume looks VERY similar to Loyola Chicago (who beat them H2H and is at or below the cut line right now).

San Fran:
-NET: 26
-KenPom: 23
-Q1: 3-5, Q2: 5-2, Q3: 5-0, Q4: 9-1
-SOS: 78, NC SOS: 127
Road Record: 7-2
Wins vs Projected Tourney Teams: 1 (Davidson - also becomes a bubble team if they don't win the A10 AQ)

Loyola Chicago:
-NET: 29
-KenPom: 26
-Q1: 2-2, Q2: 5-4, Q3: 6-1, Q4: 9-0
-SOS: 114, NC SOS: 44
-Road Record: 8-3
-Wins vs Projected Tourney Teams: 1 (San Fran)

Best not lose to BYU IMO.

The overall SOS is a pretty big gap there IMO- a gap that would increase with BYU compared to Northern Iowa.

Also the overall metrics really favor USF:
USF 34/47/35/23/35
Loy 62/57/28/30/45

1st 2 are the results based Metrics- KPI and SOR. Only one of any of the metrics that Loyola is ahead of is BPI. (if this were RPI it'd be a no doubter- USF is 28 Loyola is 56).

[Husky_U]

We shall see.

First ticket to the NIT officially punched as SunBelt Regular Season Champ Texas State loses in the quarterfinals to the number 8 seed Louisiana.

[stever20]

Davidson going to be really interesting should they lose early in the A10 tourney. A10 with their biggest shot in ages to be a 1 bid conference.

[Jet915]

Bubble results: Davidson, Florida, Indiana, VT lose, Dayton and Miami win so far. Big game will be Murray State/Morehead State.