How many wins for reg season league champ?

[GumbyDamnit!]

Been looking at the Nova schedule and trying to figure out wins/losses. As it relates to the BE reg season I think Nova will end up Top 3 but I'm having a tough time seeing them winning more than 11-12 league games. I can't imagine the regular season champ is going to have more than 12-13. I see a LOT of 10-8, 9-9 teams.

I have them going 5-1 vs. DePaul, SHU and Butler and splitting the rest for 11-7. And SJU and Prov scare the crap put of me this year for some reason (more than Marq, Creighton and Gtwn). If SJU & Prov. are our 6 or 7th best team, this league is going to be crazy competitive 1 through 7. 1st place might end up 12-6 and 6th place 10-8.

Thoughts from other programs?

[stever20]

I think it'd be hard for the champion to be only 12-6. That would mean, assuming they go 6-0 vs the bottom 3 teams, that they only go 6-6 vs teams 2-7. I just don't see that happening. And with the champion winning more games, that's going to come at the expense of teams that finish 5-7.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I think it'd be hard for the champion to be only 12-6. That would mean, assuming they go 6-0 vs the bottom 3 teams, that they only go 6-6 vs teams 2-7. I just don't see that happening. And with the champion winning more games, that's going to come at the expense of teams that finish 5-7.

OK, you may be right. 12 might be too low. But I would say 13 may be best case scenario. OK let's assume the league champ (we'll use Marq as the example) goes 6-0 vs the bottom 3, which is not a gimme by any stretch. Let's also assume that they are fortunate enough to win every home game, which may be tough to ask. Tell me where you see more than a couple wins out of the following:

@ Xavier? (Cintas is a very tough venue)
@Creighton (seems a lot like the Cintas Ctr)
@Gtwn? (MU lost there last year)
@Nova? (MU lost there last year)
@the Dunkin D Ctr? (beat Prov early in the season last year at home by 10)
@the Garden ? (won there last year in OT and SJU has entire team coming back)

I don't think they win more than 1or 2 of these games, and they probably drop at least 1 at home which = 5 losses or 13-5. And it might be tough to just assume the top teams will easily go 6-0 vs. Butler, SHU and DePaul. Each will get a couple quality scalps this year. So even if Marq is able to win a couple games vs. the Top 7 Away, there is no guarantee that they'll not fall into a trap game (like @ DePau)l when they are sandwiched around games vs. Creighton, G'town, Nova and Providence. It's just so hard to get up for every game.

Marq (or anyone else for that matter) doesn't have the talent that a team like L'ville had last year to be able to win more than 13 games in this league IMO. From what I can see, no team is running away from the pack this year.

[stever20]

I think it'd be hard for the champion to be only 12-6. That would mean, assuming they go 6-0 vs the bottom 3 teams, that they only go 6-6 vs teams 2-7. I just don't see that happening. And with the champion winning more games, that's going to come at the expense of teams that finish 5-7.

OK, you may be right. 12 might be too low. But I would say 13 may be best case scenario. OK let's assume the league champ (we'll use Marq as the example) goes 6-0 vs the bottom 3, which is not a gimme by any stretch. Let's also assume that they are fortunate enough to win every home game, which may be tough to ask. Tell me where you see more than a couple wins out of the following:

@ Xavier? (Cintas is a very tough venue)
@Creighton (seems a lot like the Cintas Ctr)
@Gtwn? (MU lost there last year)
@Nova? (MU lost there last year)
@the Dunkin D Ctr? (beat Prov early in the season last year at home by 10)
@the Garden ? (won there last year in OT and SJU has entire team coming back)

I don't think they win more than 1or 2 of these games, and they probably drop at least 1 at home which = 5 losses or 13-5. And it might be tough to just assume the top teams will easily go 6-0 vs. Butler, SHU and DePaul. Each will get a couple quality scalps this year. So even if Marq is able to win a couple games vs. the Top 7 Away, there is no guarantee that they'll not fall into a trap game (like @ DePau)l when they are sandwiched around games vs. Creighton, G'town, Nova and Providence. It's just so hard to get up for every game.

Marq (or anyone else for that matter) doesn't have the talent that a team like L'ville had last year to be able to win more than 13 games in this league IMO. From what I can see, no team is running away from the pack this year.

inevetiably a team puts things together and goes 14-4 or something like that. Almost don't care what conference it is. Last year not a single conference champion in a conference that played 16 or more games won fewer than 13 games. Creighton and Niagara in 18 game schedules were the only 2 that won the conference at 13-5. Everyone else had at least 14 wins.