by Bill Marsh » Fri Nov 01, 2013 3:34 pm
Prediction: Georgetown beats Oregon
Can someone please explain to me why Oregon is ranked #18? Is that what a run to the Sweet 16 does for you? They were taken so lightly by the committee that they were only seeded #12, which means that despite their Pac-12 championship, the committee ranked them in the 40's. Wins over Oklahoma State and St. Louis jumped them to #15 in the final coaches' poll and deservedly so. But they lost their entire front court from that team including one player who was their leading scorer, another who was their leading rebounder, and a 3rd who was their leader in blocked shots. They also lost one of their 2 top reserves; in total, they lost 4 of their top 7 players. That's a lot to lose. They are rebuilding mostly around transfers who played at lower levels (CUSA, Mountain West, 2 JC's).
Meanwhile, Georgetown has everyone back except Porter. They bring in an outstanding transfer of their own (Smith) + Reggie Cameron, a 4-star recruit, and they drop out of the top 25?! Maybe they just didn't lose enough from last year. Maybe if they had lost 3 or 4 players, they would have been ranked higher. All I know is that Georgetown was an outstanding team last year. Their new recruits only add to the outstanding talent base they already have. With 4 returning starters, they should be able to bring their team together much more quickly for opening day than a team that is rebuilding to replace 3 starters and a total of 4 players from their 7 man rotation.
Consider that Oregon went up against 2 Big East teams last year and lost to both of them. Their loss to Louisville wasn't a big surprise, but an 11-point loss to Cincinnati on a neutral court doesn't speak highly of their ability to match up against Georgetown, who was a much better team than Cincinnati last year. In contrast, Georgetown's only game against the Pac-12 was an 8-point win over regular season champion UCLA.
This one really wasn't a tough call unless you want to judge Georgetown on one tournament game upset.