Sun 12/1 BE Game Thread (6 games)

[stever20]

I think Bill for one- if you only have 17-18 wins now- you generally speaking will have 14-15 losses. All teams are playing 31-32 games at least, so if you have 18 wins playing 32 games- you have 14 losses. You almost have to get to the 20 wins so you have only 11-12 losses.
just looking last 4 tournaments-
2013- 3 12+ loss teams made tournament(all had 20 wins)
2012- 7 12+ loss teams made tournament(all but 2 had 20 wins)
2011- 7 12+ loss teams made tournament(2/7 had 20 wins, other 5 had 19)
2010- 4 12+ loss teams made touranment(all had 20 wins)
So, of the 21 teams last 4 years with 12+ losses that made the tourny, 14 of those teams had 20+ wins. Only 7 had fewer, and all had at least 19 wins.

Also, the committee has totally de-emphasized how a team is playing towards the tourney. Great case in point was a few years ago Nova when they went off the deep end, but still got a 9 seed.

did some math... last 4 years there would have been 145 at large teams. 21 made it with 12+ losses. That's 14.5%

now let's look at this years big east...
for the 5 2 loss teams. Add 10 conference losses, and 1 BET loss. That's 13 losses. With 9 conference losses, 12 losses
For the 4 3 loss teams. Add 10 conference losses, and 1 BET loss. That's 14 losses. With 9 conference losses, 13 losses.
That's without taking any more OOC losses. It's fairly easy to see 5th/6th place team with 9-10 losses, the way this conference will be.
wouldn't be shocked to see something like what the A-Sun had last year
14-4
13-5
11-7
9-9
9-9
9-9
8-10
8-10
7-11
2-16

That would make a lot of teams with 12-13 losses at least, if not 13-14 losses.

[billyjack]

Could easily be:
13-5
13-5
12-6
11-7
11-7
11-7
8-10
6-12
3-15
2-16
A bunch of 20+ win teams.
Then more wins doled out in the BET.
Pretty soon we'll have cats and dogs sleeping with each other.

[stever20]

It's possible- but I think it's kind of hard to see Butler and Xavier winning only 8 and 6 games respectively(and Seton Hall DePaul only 3 and 2).

Also- and I wouldn't have said this last week- I don't know that Nova only wins 13 games.

[TheHall]

It's possible- but I think it's kind of hard to see Butler and Xavier winning only 8 and 6 games respectively(and Seton Hall DePaul only 3 and 2).

Also- and I wouldn't have said this last week- I don't know that Nova only wins 13 games.

As long as you don't have a single digit ranking next to your name you should have a decent chance against the cats.

[stever20]

Nova seems like they may be different this year. Wright's back with his kind of team.

And I think the difference may be more at the back end. I don't see Butler and Xavier winning only 8 and 6 games. I'd guess each of them wins 5-6 games at home alone, and then 2-3 each away.

Did some looking. Last year there were 8 10 team conferences.....
avg 4th place team went 10.25-7.75
avg 5th place team went 9.625-8.375
avg 6th place team went 8.375-9.625

not a single 6th place team was better than 9-9. 4 9-9's, 3 8-10, and 1 7-11.
5th place- 3 11-7, 1 10-8, 2 9-9, and 2 8-10's!
4th place- 4 11-7, 2 10-8, 2 9-9

going back 2 years-
you did have Horizon where 7th place team was 10-8 even. But counteracting that would be the MVC, where 3rd place team was 9-9
3 years ago, Horizon had 6th place team at 10-8 also. In the last 3 years, that's the only conference where 6th place team was over .500(and it happened twice in the same conference).