[2013] ESPN somewhat new bracketology- no bracket-but Scurve

[stever20]

Just looking.

UVA is right now #40 RPI. Their 2x games aren't bad... Notre Dame, Maryland, Florida St, and Va Tech. Only VT like a bottom third team.

Ken Pom has them going 21-10 11-7 in conference. That's almost always plenty enough to get in...

The SMU win could wind up being huge if it comes down to bubble between the two of them.

[Bill Marsh]

I'd take UNC's season over almost any team in the Big East. You know what their RPI is right now? 12. #8 in Ken Pom. They were #11 on Saturday, but after losing to UAB and beating Michigan St, they're now #8.

You know what RPI means right now? Squat.

Power Ratings tell the tale better any point in the season, but especially now. team Rankings has North Carolina ranked #35 on their composite Power Rating. Their 2 big losses count just as much as their 2 big wins. Id they're up and down team like this all year long, then that's how they'll be seen in the end. If their season turns a corner in one direction or another, then they'll be seen in that light. I'll take Villanova's undefeated season at this point 7 days a week and twice on Sunday over what North Carolina has done.

[stever20]

I'd take UNC's season over almost any team in the Big East. You know what their RPI is right now? 12. #8 in Ken Pom. They were #11 on Saturday, but after losing to UAB and beating Michigan St, they're now #8.

You know what RPI means right now? Squat.

Power Ratings tell the tale better any point in the season, but especially now. team Rankings has North Carolina ranked #35 on their composite Power Rating. Their 2 big losses count just as much as their 2 big wins. Id they're up and down team like this all year long, then that's how they'll be seen in the end. If their season turns a corner in one direction or another, then they'll be seen in that light. I'll take Villanova's undefeated season at this point 7 days a week and twice on Sunday over what North Carolina has done.

Of course you would take Nova, but I'd take UNC over anyone else right now.

Ken Pom has them #8- up 3 spots from Saturday- before they lost to UAB.

[Bill Marsh]

I'd take UNC's season over almost any team in the Big East. You know what their RPI is right now? 12. #8 in Ken Pom. They were #11 on Saturday, but after losing to UAB and beating Michigan St, they're now #8.

You know what RPI means right now? Squat.

Power Ratings tell the tale better any point in the season, but especially now. team Rankings has North Carolina ranked #35 on their composite Power Rating. Their 2 big losses count just as much as their 2 big wins. Id they're up and down team like this all year long, then that's how they'll be seen in the end. If their season turns a corner in one direction or another, then they'll be seen in that light. I'll take Villanova's undefeated season at this point 7 days a week and twice on Sunday over what North Carolina has done.

Of course you would take Nova, but I'd take UNC over anyone else right now.

Ken Pom has them #8- up 3 spots from Saturday- before they lost to UAB.

I'm suspect of Ken Pom's methodology this early in the season. Sagarin has North Carolina at #24. I'd have more faith in his formula. Frankly, North Carolina doesn't look much different than Georgetown right now - erratic and unpredictable. Gerogetown hasn't had wins that are as prominent but they haven't had losses so awful either. The exact ranking matters little right now.

[stever20]

Belmont isn't that bad of a loss- they're #69 in Sagarin right now. Oregon is only #35 right now.
UAB is 2 spots ahead of Northeastern...

Unfortuately Georgetown doesn't have the 2 huge wins that UNC has either. And, it's unfortuantely telling that even before the upset last night, UNC was 11 spots higher on Lunardi's s curve. And 6 spots higher in Sagarin. Georgetown to get above UNC needs to beat either Kansas or Michigan St. And hope that UNC doesn't beat Kentucky!

[Bill Marsh]

Belmont isn't that bad of a loss- they're #69 in Sagarin right now. Oregon is only #35 right now.
UAB is 2 spots ahead of Northeastern...

Unfortuately Georgetown doesn't have the 2 huge wins that UNC has either. And, it's unfortuantely telling that even before the upset last night, UNC was 11 spots higher on Lunardi's s curve. And 6 spots higher in Sagarin. Georgetown to get above UNC needs to beat either Kansas or Michigan St. And hope that UNC doesn't beat Kentucky!

6 spots and 11 spots means absolutely nothing right now. VCU was a huge win at the time that Georgetown beat them. Just look at what happened to Michigan State after last night's loss. They dropped to #25 in Team Rankings list. At this time of year that's not very different than VCU at #36. In Sagarin, VCU is #31.

You're the one who pointed out recently in another discussion to a different poster than the goal posts are constantly moving. What appears to be a big win now will mean nothing to the committee if that team tanks and conversely an ordinary win will take on new meaning if that team surges. There is absolutely nothing definitive about the results that have come in so far.

The various power ratings and especially the RPI ratings are I their formative stages for the season. They are constantly being recallibrated, so their true meaning will only take shape as the season unfolds. Like the games themselves, these are preliminary results.

[stever20]

Belmont isn't that bad of a loss- they're #69 in Sagarin right now. Oregon is only #35 right now.
UAB is 2 spots ahead of Northeastern...

Unfortuately Georgetown doesn't have the 2 huge wins that UNC has either. And, it's unfortuantely telling that even before the upset last night, UNC was 11 spots higher on Lunardi's s curve. And 6 spots higher in Sagarin. Georgetown to get above UNC needs to beat either Kansas or Michigan St. And hope that UNC doesn't beat Kentucky!

6 spots and 11 spots means absolutely nothing right now. VCU was a huge win at the time that Georgetown beat them. Just look at what happened to Michigan State after last night's loss. They dropped to #25 in Team Rankings list. At this time of year that's not very different than VCU at #36. In Sagarin, VCU is #31.

You're the one who pointed out recently in another discussion to a different poster than the goal posts are constantly moving. What appears to be a big win now will mean nothing to the committee if that team tanks and conversely an ordinary win will take on new meaning if that team surges. There is absolutely nothing definitive about the results that have come in so far.

The various power ratings and especially the RPI ratings are I their formative stages for the season. They are constantly being recallibrated, so their true meaning will only take shape as the season unfolds. Like the games themselves, these are preliminary results.

You are right about the goal posts constantly moving. But, what in the world makes you think at all that UNC's wins over Louisville or Michigan St would be meaningless. There's nothing we've seen from either one of those that indicates that those wins won't mean much. In Sagarin, while VCU is #31, Michigan St is 13 and Louisville is 7. (just like you can pretty much put it in pen that Nova's win over Kansas will be a huge win end of the year as well).

[Bill Marsh]

Belmont isn't that bad of a loss- they're #69 in Sagarin right now. Oregon is only #35 right now.
UAB is 2 spots ahead of Northeastern...

Unfortuately Georgetown doesn't have the 2 huge wins that UNC has either. And, it's unfortuantely telling that even before the upset last night, UNC was 11 spots higher on Lunardi's s curve. And 6 spots higher in Sagarin. Georgetown to get above UNC needs to beat either Kansas or Michigan St. And hope that UNC doesn't beat Kentucky!

6 spots and 11 spots means absolutely nothing right now. VCU was a huge win at the time that Georgetown beat them. Just look at what happened to Michigan State after last night's loss. They dropped to #25 in Team Rankings list. At this time of year that's not very different than VCU at #36. In Sagarin, VCU is #31.

You're the one who pointed out recently in another discussion to a different poster than the goal posts are constantly moving. What appears to be a big win now will mean nothing to the committee if that team tanks and conversely an ordinary win will take on new meaning if that team surges. There is absolutely nothing definitive about the results that have come in so far.

The various power ratings and especially the RPI ratings are I their formative stages for the season. They are constantly being recallibrated, so their true meaning will only take shape as the season unfolds. Like the games themselves, these are preliminary results.

You are right about the goal posts constantly moving. But, what in the world makes you think at all that UNC's wins over Louisville or Michigan St would be meaningless. There's nothing we've seen from either one of those that indicates that those wins won't mean much. In Sagarin, while VCU is #31, Michigan St is 13 and Louisville is 7. (just like you can pretty much put it in pen that Nova's win over Kansas will be a huge win end of the year as well).

Sorry to take so long to reply. It's been a busy week.

Didn't say they'd be meaningless. Sorry if I implied that. I said they wouldn't mean much IF - big IF - a team tanks as the season progresses. Not suggesting that LV and MSU will tank, just that there is a lot lf basketball yet to be played.

I do have my reservations about Louisville being as good as people think. They won't tank obviously, but just how big a win that will be remains to be seen. Despite the talent, Louisville's losses were2 guys who were absolutely key to their chemistry. Jones in particular has a polar opposite approach to playing PG than Peyton Siva did. Nothing wrong with that, but whether it will click with this group and how it will effect chemistry is up in the air. Funny thing about Louisville is that they may look better during the regular season than they did last year because of the diminished competition they'll be facing in the AAC. Their day of reckoning may not come until the tournament. I'm sure that Pitino would rather be facing the old BE schedule to get this team ready for the tournament than what is in place now.

[stever20]

The AAC for them with 6 games vs Memphis, UConn(both with exempt tourney wins) and undefeated Cincy will be huge. Where Pitino will miss the old BE schedule(as will the C7 frankly)- is not having as many different styles in conference play, so when you got to the tourney, you had seen everything you would see in the tourney. You could say ok this team's style is similar to Pittsburgh, we need to do this when we play them.

[Bill Marsh]

The AAC for them with 6 games vs Memphis, UConn(both with exempt tourney wins) and undefeated Cincy will be huge. Where Pitino will miss the old BE schedule(as will the C7 frankly)- is not having as many different styles in conference play, so when you got to the tourney, you had seen everything you would see in the tourney. You could say ok this team's style is similar to Pittsburgh, we need to do this when we play them.

Agree. There's also the factor of having been tested. UConn is the only team that I see really testing Louisville. Memphis under Pastner has yet to prove itself to be a big game program and Cincinnati under Cronin was pretty much a middle of the pack program in the Big East. Despite Cincinnati's early season wins against virtually nobody, I see no evidence that the Bearcats have become anything other than that same middle of the pack team as compared with the old Big East.

As for UConn, your point about diversity of styles really applies here. As good as UConn is, they are a doughnut team with a big hole in the middle. They will give Louisville great experience 2-3 times this year playing against a quick, perimeter team, but it will do nothing for helping the Cardinals learn to play against a tough, inside team or a strong physical one.