ranking the big east as of 12-21

[stever20]

11 conference wins plus the 9 OOC wins and they are at 20 wins- rpi about 45.. That's a pretty magic number for a committee. Always has been for the major conferences. Committee has shown last few years they'd take a 21-10 team over a 18-14 team with a tougher schedule.

SMU's projected RPI right now is 58. If they got 1 more win than projected, they're a top 50 RPI team. Numbers I did earlier this week were all pretty much predicated on # to get to 20.

Brother Stever,
Virginia, LAST YEAR, had 21 regular season wins and an 11-7 record in the ACC, and didn't make the NCAAs.
This year, they already have 3 losses, including to UW-Green Bay.

The ACC is in a tough spot because teams like Boston College (with PC loss), Georgia Tech (with St John's loss) and Virginia Tech (with Seton Hall loss) aren't good, their RPI is awful, but they ARE good enough to beat bubble teams like Florida State and Maryland and definitely Virginia.

Actually, Virginia has had ONE true road game, their loss at Green Bay.

true about UVA- but they had putrid OOC losses(this years losses nothing like last year at all).

FSU with all their wins now isn't a bubble team.

[OutlawWales]

I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.

And the real problem is that right now there's virtually no way for anyone in the BIG EAST to get into the rankings except by severe and massive attrition by other teams losing.

Look at Creighton. When the Jays lost to San Diego, they were sure to take a bit of a hit. But they would have still been relevant and in the discussions/getting votes, etc., if they hadn't come out and lost to George Washington. Instead, two losses in a row that were games they should have won, and they vanished from the radar of voters. Now you can fast forward a couple of weeks and several blow out wins in a row, including against the Big Ten and the Pac 12, and they are basically not even getting votes. Next week they play Chicago State -- the Jays could win that game by 100 on Sunday afternoon and nobody is going to care or give them votes they aren't getting right now, except as a result of other teams losing.

Then all of a sudden you are in conference play. So you've got a bunch of unranked teams playing each other week in and week out. Except for games against Villanova, what kind of a win against another unranked team is going to get voters to start jumping up and down about wanting to put BIG EAST teams in the polls? Marquette is going to be tough to beat in conference play and is going to beat some people -- but does a win over Marquette catch voters' attention now? Probably not. Butler has been really good all year -- not ranked. What does beating Butler do for anyone now? Creighton had the above slip up and is not ranked now -- what does beating Creighton do for you going forward? You could do that with about every team.

I hate to be as pessimistic as stever, for sure. But I think the problem the BIG EAST may well end up with by the end of this year is that this is going to be arguably one of the top couple of conferences, top to bottom. But except for Villanova right now (and who knows what happens if they lose a few in conference play), the "top" isn't ranked and isn't really catching people's eyes. So you end up with a ton of really good RPI teams, and a high conference ranking, but most likely a grouping of four teams or so that are all bubble teams at the end of the day -- and maybe they all get in, maybe almost none of them do. Look at the ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, etc. -- at least in those conferences there are multiple ranked teams that give everyone else in the conference the chance for a really big "pop" win over a ranked team throughout the year to jump in polls, rankings, bubble consideration, etc.

I also hate that the Jays have such weird timing for these last few games. They've controlled, start to finish, the last three games. Up by 30 at one point against Nebraska, up by 20 last night against Cal, etc. But those were late Sunday games -- and well after many/most voters had already filled out ballots. Then, by the time the next ballot comes up the following week it's been a week with lots of other things happening. It's pretty hard to get voters to even recognize or care about games scheduled like that.

[notkirkcameron]

I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.

The trouble with this mode of analysis is that it generally favors top-heavy leagues. Put another way, if you look at the Top 25, you'd have no clue what the bottom of the league looks like. Ohio State plays in the Big Ten but so does Northwestern. Duke plays in the ACC but so does Virginia Tech, etc. The American is a classic example of this. The AAC has 5 teams in the Top 60 of KenPom's rankings, and 3 in the Top 25. Sounds great, right? Only one problem: The AAC has 10 teams. So while the AAC may have 3 teams in the Top 25, it's not crazy to think those might be the only 3 teams out of the ACC dancing (Louisville, UConn, Memphis).

Conference Teams in KenPom Top 60
ACC: 8
Big 10: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
Pac-12: 7
Big 12: 6
AAC: 5

I picked the top 60 because while an imperfect theory (exceptions for one-bid leagues and conference tournament upsets) the overwhelming majority of the 68 teams who make up the NCAA Tournament will be in the top 68 teams in the country (53 of the Top 68 eligible KenPom teams made it last year). Teams in the Top 60 at the very least should expect to be part of the conversation for tournament berths. In this regard, the Big East is certainly in no worse shape than other conferences , and here's the corollary of this analysis. How many bottom-feeders are there in your league?

Big East: 3 of 10 teams out of the Ken Pom top 60 (30%)
Big 10: 4 of 12 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (33%)
Big 12: 4 of 10 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (40%)
Pac-12: 5 of 12 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (42%)
ACC: 7 of 15 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (47%)
AAC: 5 of 10 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (50%)
SEC: 7 of 14 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (50%)

So yea, the Big East doesn't have a lot of world-beaters this season like the Big 10, but it really doesn't have any pushovers either.

[HoosierPal]

I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.

So yea, the Big East doesn't have a lot of world-beaters this season like the Big 10, but it really doesn't have any pushovers either.

Did DePaul and Seton Hall drop out? (Just kidding. )

[DudeAnon]

It will be a good conference this year, but we lost way too many games in OOC, that simple.

[Jet915]

As far as teams getting ranked, the best way would be for Butler to beat Villanova, that should get them pretty close to ranked I would think and for Providence to win at UMASS. In order to Creighton to get in, they'll have to atleast beat Marquette and hope teams ahead of them lose.

[Friarfan2]

Outlaw hits the nail on the head in terms of ranking. We needed a few teams ranked entering conference play to turn heads when we win games. Now it is just a bunch of unranked teams beating each other. Creighton could have maintained, georgetown bit the bullet, and butler didn't quite get it done. Maybe if providence had beat maryland we could be talking, or if the johnnies had beat penn state.

[HoosierPal]

As far as teams getting ranked, the best way would be for Butler to beat Villanova, that should get them pretty close to ranked I would think and for Providence to win at UMASS. In order to Creighton to get in, they'll have to atleast beat Marquette and hope teams ahead of them lose.

Creighton is the only Big East team in the "Others Receiving Votes" list. Long way to go for my Dawgs or Providence to get in.

[Sactowndog]

I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.

This ^

The fact is the big east in basketball is like the big east in football with a number of good teams and few great teams. Too many teams in the 50-100 RPI range. The league prioritized items over basketball. You can argue whether it was correct or not. What you can't argue is that a 12 team Big East with VCU and Wichita State would be a much stronger league this year.

At this point we are pretty comparable to other mid major leagues with a limited amount of top 25 teams. What we don't have is many horrible teams and that helps our conference ranking but it won't matter in March.

[Sactowndog]

I like drinking the Big East Kool-Aid as much as the next one, but we need to take a step backwards. Looking at this weeks polls (AP and Coaches Polls are similar), we are right there....with the Missouri Valley, West Coast, A10 and the Mountain West. The Big 10 and Big 12 both have four teams in the top 25, the SEC, the Pac 12 and AAC have 3. We have one. Hard to put the Big East ahead of conferences with three or four Top 25 teams. As someone said earlier, the media and the fans look a the polls to see where the tough teams are. Right now they only see Villanova among the elite.

The trouble with this mode of analysis is that it generally favors top-heavy leagues. Put another way, if you look at the Top 25, you'd have no clue what the bottom of the league looks like. Ohio State plays in the Big Ten but so does Northwestern. Duke plays in the ACC but so does Virginia Tech, etc. The American is a classic example of this. The AAC has 5 teams in the Top 60 of KenPom's rankings, and 3 in the Top 25. Sounds great, right? Only one problem: The AAC has 10 teams. So while the AAC may have 3 teams in the Top 25, it's not crazy to think those might be the only 3 teams out of the ACC dancing (Louisville, UConn, Memphis).

Conference Teams in KenPom Top 60
ACC: 8
Big 10: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
Pac-12: 7
Big 12: 6
AAC: 5

I picked the top 60 because while an imperfect theory (exceptions for one-bid leagues and conference tournament upsets) the overwhelming majority of the 68 teams who make up the NCAA Tournament will be in the top 68 teams in the country (53 of the Top 68 eligible KenPom teams made it last year). Teams in the Top 60 at the very least should expect to be part of the conversation for tournament berths. In this regard, the Big East is certainly in no worse shape than other conferences , and here's the corollary of this analysis. How many bottom-feeders are there in your league?

Big East: 3 of 10 teams out of the Ken Pom top 60 (30%)
Big 10: 4 of 12 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (33%)
Big 12: 4 of 10 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (40%)
Pac-12: 5 of 12 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (42%)
ACC: 7 of 15 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (47%)
AAC: 5 of 10 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (50%)
SEC: 7 of 14 teams out of the KenPom Top 60 (50%)

So yea, the Big East doesn't have a lot of world-beaters this season like the Big 10, but it really doesn't have any pushovers either.

That is an interesting analysis but what does it look like with top 40 because that is what it will take for a sure at large birth. I think the Big East struggles at that point. Right now Palm has us with three teams in which is Mid-major status.