New Year's Eve - St John's at Xavier 12pm ET FS1

[NJRedman]

Looking forward to a very good game with 2 very solid teams. This is the kind of game you can simulate 100 times and SJ will win 50 with X winning the other 50. Too close to call. Here's to no injuries!

Since Xavier is the home team, that would imply that St. John's is a better team than Xavier. I just don't think they are, and actually I think it's the opposite (though it's close). Kenpom gives Xavier a 72% chance of winning; that's more than homecourt advantage would suggest. Vegas gives 4.5 points to St. John's, which is more than you give a road team by default.

Now, St. John's has a serious advantage where Xavier has a weakness: Shot blocking. That could drastically change the game, both through shots directly being blocked and Xavier players hesitating to even go to the rim or putting up a poor shot when there (The Roy Hibbert Effect).

I'm pretty sure he meant if they played 100 times. Not necessarily 100 games at Citnas.

Also Kenpom doesn't actually play the games. Vegas gives about 3 points to the road team by default i believe. So really Vegas is giving SJU 1.5 points. So pretty much Vegas thinks it will be a really close game.

[Lavinwood]

Looking forward to a very good game with 2 very solid teams. This is the kind of game you can simulate 100 times and SJ will win 50 with X winning the other 50. Too close to call. Here's to no injuries!

Since Xavier is the home team, that would imply that St. John's is a better team than Xavier. I just don't think they are, and actually I think it's the opposite (though it's close). Kenpom gives Xavier a 72% chance of winning; that's more than homecourt advantage would suggest. Vegas gives 4.5 points to St. John's, which is more than you give a road team by default.

Now, St. John's has a serious advantage where Xavier has a weakness: Shot blocking. That could drastically change the game, both through shots directly being blocked and Xavier players hesitating to even go to the rim or putting up a poor shot when there (The Roy Hibbert Effect).

It's just surprising to me how people think Xavier is #2 Cuse like they are going to cruise through to the easy win. Funny enough, Cuse fans were crapping themselves at MSG and if we didn't miss 3 or 4 FT's with 2 minutes left, the outcome might be different. This is a SJ team you can't count out against anyone. I don't care if it's Duke or Cuse. Realistically, Xavier is coming from the A-10. SJ is coming from the grinder known as the Big East where we played National Championship contenders all the time. We play at the most famous arena in the US. So to say we will be intimidated is just funny…this is NYC. Literally the last people you can intimidate. Xavier was always among the best mid majors and they are now major. But to act like this is a roll-over is just nonsensical. Playing at home is an advantage sometimes, but other times it isn't. You still have to play the game. You still have to execute. You can't imply that a team who has faced and seriously competed with the likes of Duke, Wisconsin, Cuse, etc. is scared of Xavier. Hell, even our women beat #2 UConn a few years ago. My point is that no one will intimidate us.

We have not peaked yet IMO, but look at our Fordham game. When we are clicking on all cylinders we are scary good. Xavier had an impressive win vs. Cincy, but we beat them the past 2 times when they were ranked and we weren't. So no one is bowing down. The recent mid major is playing the major. Not the other way. The more you guys are voting over 80% that they will roll to a win, the more you are jinxing it . Hell, I wouldn't even give us an 80% chance against Seton Hall…maybe 65% or 70%. But 84% with Xavier over SJ? I don't care if you are playing in front of 1,000,000 Xavier fans…they are not world beaters.

[collegehoopsdigest]

College Hoops Digest has a preview of the St. John's vs Xavier game. Welcome to conference play!

http://www.collegehoopsdigest.com/2013/ ... sI4CouzKpg

[XUFan09]

Since you specifically quoted me, where did I say Xavier was going to cruise to the win? Find it and show it to me. Maybe you can get NJ Redman's help too, as he apparently reached the same erroneous conclusion. You'll both waste a lot of time, though, because you won't find that claim. You SJ fans are a defensive bunch...seems to lead you to read way too much into people's posts that are potentially critical of St. John's in any way. I'll list my points:

I think Xavier is a slighly better team than St. John's.
The home team also receives a little edge.
Therefore, Xavier would win more than 50 out of 100 games in a simulation of this scenario.

Kenpom predicts a 72% probability of Xavier winning. If you know anything about Kenpom, you know that doesn't automatically mean the prediction of an easy win. An easy win is more probable for Xavier than St. John's, but still, an easy win either direction isn't the most probable outcome overall. In fact, Kenpom also projects only a 5-point win. Very similar to Vegas' prediction of a close game. Xavier is also the more probable victor of winning a close game, though, by virtue of being the slightly higher rated team and the home team.

[NJRedman]

Since you specifically quoted me, where did I say Xavier was going to cruise to the win? Find it and show it to me. Maybe you can get NJ Redman's help too, as he apparently reached the same erroneous conclusion. You'll both waste a lot of time, though, because you won't find that claim. You SJ fans are a defensive bunch...seems to lead you to read way too much into people's posts that are potentially critical of St. John's in any way. I'll list my points:

I think Xavier is a slighly better team than St. John's.
The home team also receives a little edge.
Therefore, Xavier would win more than 50 out of 100 games in a simulation of this scenario.

Kenpom predicts a 72% probability of Xavier winning. If you know anything about Kenpom, you know that doesn't automatically mean the prediction of an easy win. An easy win is more probable for Xavier than St. John's, but still, an easy win either direction isn't the most probable outcome overall. In fact, Kenpom also projects only a 5-point win. Very similar to Vegas' prediction of a close game. Xavier is also the more probable victor of winning a close game, though, by virtue of being the slightly higher rated team and the home team.

Uh you accuse someone of putting words in your mouth then in the very next sentence do the same thing to me. hahahaha

You also claim we're defensive then get very defensive. hahaha

Therefore I think we have a better team than X. So one of us will be wrong and one of us will be right. We'll see in 14 hours from now.

[bmorex]

Looking forward to a very good game with 2 very solid teams. This is the kind of game you can simulate 100 times and SJ will win 50 with X winning the other 50. Too close to call. Here's to no injuries!

Since Xavier is the home team, that would imply that St. John's is a better team than Xavier. I just don't think they are, and actually I think it's the opposite (though it's close). Kenpom gives Xavier a 72% chance of winning; that's more than homecourt advantage would suggest. Vegas gives 4.5 points to St. John's, which is more than you give a road team by default.

Now, St. John's has a serious advantage where Xavier has a weakness: Shot blocking. That could drastically change the game, both through shots directly being blocked and Xavier players hesitating to even go to the rim or putting up a poor shot when there (The Roy Hibbert Effect).

It's just surprising to me how people think Xavier is #2 Cuse like they are going to cruise through to the easy win. Funny enough, Cuse fans were crapping themselves at MSG and if we didn't miss 3 or 4 FT's with 2 minutes left, the outcome might be different. This is a SJ team you can't count out against anyone. I don't care if it's Duke or Cuse. Realistically, Xavier is coming from the A-10. SJ is coming from the grinder known as the Big East where we played National Championship contenders all the time. We play at the most famous arena in the US. So to say we will be intimidated is just funny…this is NYC. Literally the last people you can intimidate. Xavier was always among the best mid majors and they are now major. But to act like this is a roll-over is just nonsensical. Playing at home is an advantage sometimes, but other times it isn't. You still have to play the game. You still have to execute. You can't imply that a team who has faced and seriously competed with the likes of Duke, Wisconsin, Cuse, etc. is scared of Xavier. Hell, even our women beat #2 UConn a few years ago. My point is that no one will intimidate us.

We have not peaked yet IMO, but look at our Fordham game. When we are clicking on all cylinders we are scary good. Xavier had an impressive win vs. Cincy, but we beat them the past 2 times when they were ranked and we weren't. So no one is bowing down. The recent mid major is playing the major. Not the other way. The more you guys are voting over 80% that they will roll to a win, the more you are jinxing it . Hell, I wouldn't even give us an 80% chance against Seton Hall…maybe 65% or 70%. But 84% with Xavier over SJ? I don't care if you are playing in front of 1,000,000 Xavier fans…they are not world beaters.

This whole post reeks of New York elitism.

[Lavinwood]

Since you specifically quoted me, where did I say Xavier was going to cruise to the win? Find it and show it to me. Maybe you can get NJ Redman's help too, as he apparently reached the same erroneous conclusion. You'll both waste a lot of time, though, because you won't find that claim. You SJ fans are a defensive bunch...seems to lead you to read way too much into people's posts that are potentially critical of St. John's in any way. I'll list my points:

I think Xavier is a slighly better team than St. John's.
The home team also receives a little edge.
Therefore, Xavier would win more than 50 out of 100 games in a simulation of this scenario.

Kenpom predicts a 72% probability of Xavier winning. If you know anything about Kenpom, you know that doesn't automatically mean the prediction of an easy win. An easy win is more probable for Xavier than St. John's, but still, an easy win either direction isn't the most probable outcome overall. In fact, Kenpom also projects only a 5-point win. Very similar to Vegas' prediction of a close game. Xavier is also the more probable victor of winning a close game, though, by virtue of being the slightly higher rated team and the home team.

I never meant you said you'd cruise to a win. I was referring to nearly 85% of the votes going for X. That's the kind of voting I'd expect with Xavier playing NJIT. I think home court advantage is being overstated here. We beat #16 Cincy at their own place last year. We barely lost to Duke at Cameron as all freshmen. So I'm not sure why some people are so sure of the outcome. 85% voting implies it's decided. Xavier is a very good team. And so is SJ. So I'm not sure why people are acting like teams are at different levels. Home court only helps if you execute. It's overstated in terms of the effect it has. I'd feel no better at MSG with SJ playing other good teams. You said something similar to X wins 90% of their games at Cintas. I'd like to know how many are top 40 caliber like SJ. I'd venture a guess that many are well outside that range and it would be a lot more like 65-70% against stiffer competition. It's not like the Carrier Dome or Cameron. This is not the 2012 SJ team with lots of freshmen diaper dandies. This is a veteran team with the 2nd leading scorer in the conference (Harrison), the best blocker in the nation (Obekpa), and a potential ROY candidate in Jordan our 5 star PG. That doesn't even include Sampson who can dominate games all by himself, or Sanchez who is also dangerous. We also have one of the best defenders in the conference in Pointer. Jordan also plays very good D in addition to getting to the paint with ease.

I'm aware Xavier is also stacked. It's one of those games I think can go either way. I'm not scared, but I'm not confident either. I'm sure Lavin told the team that this 3 game opening stretch can be the difference between our tournament berth or lack thereof. After X we have G'Town and Nova which will be very tough. In other words, the guys should get up for this game. I think 2 teams that are very similar to us are Xavier and Marquette. So I just can't see either one dominating the other. That's why I was so shocked to see 85% picked X. Butler vs. Nova was something like 45% vs. 55% respectively. Why is it so different? Is Butler lightyears ahead of SJ? I think that would be dead wrong. But whatever, I hope Xavier takes us lightly! SJ in the underdog role thrives. I won't be surprised if X wins, but I won't be surprised if we win either. Home court advantage should not represent an 85% chance of winning…that's just crazy.

[NJRedman]

This whole post reeks of New York elitism.

Welcome to the Big East. New York elitism is how the conference came into it's own. Why do you think we meet there every March for our "get together"?

[Lavinwood]

"This whole post reeks of New York elitism"

Lol…how? I was making the point that we play in the biggest spotlight in the US i.e. NYC. So it's ridiculous to act like SJ would come in with their knees shaking at the Cintas Center. Saying NYC is a much bigger spotlight than anywhere in Ohio is just a fact unless you want to talk about college football because we have none! How are you going to intimidate a team that plays at MSG and was a minute away from taking down #2 Cuse there in front of a packed house? I have no ill will for Xavier and I'm happy to have the program on board along with your fans. I just think it's funny to say Xavier will intimidate them 1 season removed from being an A-10 mid major while SJ was playing Cuse, L'Ville, UConn, etc. etc. for years and years at MSG and other major arenas. I just think you are confused who the puppies are and who the old vets are. Oh, and by the way the new HQ of the conference is in NYC! You better get used to it!

[Chalmers0]

This board is really starting to get fun...

About 12 hours from now it gets even more fun...